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Pneumonic plague epidemic in Northeast China in 1910–1911: Dr.Wu Lien-Teh’s epidemic preventive system for plague control

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《医学前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第1期页码 113-115 doi: 10.1007/s11684-018-0613-4

摘要：

Pneumonic plague that originated in Russian Siberia broke out in Northeast China in October 1910–March 1911. On the basis of field visits, autopsy, bacteriological identification, and close collaboration with local authorities and international colleagues, Dr. Wu Lien-Teh implemented a series of efficient antiplague measures, which successfully controlled the development of an extraordinary epidemic plague. In his subsequent work, Dr. Wu demonstrated the respiratory transmission of pneumonic plague and tarbagans’ role in this spread. Dr. Wu’s academic and cultural contributions are valuable in the medical progress in China.

关键词： pneumonic plague prevention epidemic control Wu Lien-Teh

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Early-onset diabetes: an epidemic in China

Jiemin Pan, Weiping Jia

《医学前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第6期页码 624-633 doi: 10.1007/s11684-018-0669-1

摘要：

Although type 2 diabetes is a disease often associated with aging, the global prevalence of early-onset diabetes has been increasing due to man’s sedentary lifestyle, low-physical activity, obesity, and some non-modifiable risk factors. Many studies have found that individuals with early-onset type 2 diabetes were at higher risk of developing vascular complications than those with late-onset diabetes. Individuals with early-onset diabetes are usually unwilling to visit hospital and have more confidence in their health, which results in poor glycemic control and the delayed detection of diabetes-related complications. Few studies have focused on the treatment and prevention of complications in specific population of individuals with early-onset type 2 diabetes. Therefore, focusing on this particular population is critical for the government and academic societies. Screening for T2DM is imminent for young adults with a family history of diabetes, obesity, markers of insulin resistance, or alcohol consumption. More data are definitely required to establish a reasonable risk model to screen for early-onset diabetes.

关键词： diabetes early-onset diabetes complications

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新冠病毒肺炎疫情防控应急工程管理的伦理反思

方东平, 李文琪, 张恒力, 刘合

《工程（英文）》 2020年第6卷第10期页码 1070-1072 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.06.014

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公共卫生应急精准防控与一体化管理

刘奕,张宇栋,张辉,范维澄

《中国工程科学》 2021年第23卷第5期页码 24-33 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2021.05.004

摘要：

面对全球日益复杂且频发的突发公共卫生事件安全风险形势，公共卫生应急体系与能力的现代化建设至关重要，关系到国家总体安全保障水平的提高，因而是国家治理体系和治理能力现代化改革的急需。本文围绕新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控，从疫情监测报告系统、哨点监测与多点触发机制、面向个人的手机端应用程序3 个方面梳理了我国公共卫生应急防控的发展现状，深入探索了公共卫生应急精准防控与一体化管理的发展思路，并针对性地提出了对策建议。在精准化防控方面，需要综合传染病疫情时空建模和计算方法、疫情数据采集与信息统计、基层社区防控、应急资源保障等多方面需求落实防控措施；在一体化管理方面，要结合非常态下的社会治理信息采集与感知、数据分析与计算平台赋能、基层社会快速响应和指挥调度、疫情监测预警与态势预测、疫情风险的持续风险评估等实现全社会协同的公共卫生应急防控。研究建议，应加强数据与计算分析技术合力赋能疫情防控，实现精准感知管理；完善传染病监测报告系统建设；构建公共卫生治理的一体化防控体系。

关键词：公共卫生事件，应急管理，疫情防控，精准感知，信息技术赋能，一体化

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The epidemic status and risk factors of lung cancer in Xuanwei City, Yunnan Province, China

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《医学前沿（英文）》 2012年第6卷第4期页码 388-394 doi: 10.1007/s11684-012-0233-3

摘要：

Xuanwei City (formerly known as Xuanwei County) locates in the northeastern of Yunnan Province and is rich in coal, iron, copper and other mines, especially the smoky (bituminous) coal. Unfortunately, the lung cancer morbidity and mortality rates in this region are among China’s highest, with a clear upward trend from the mid-1970s to mid-2000s. In 2004–2005, the crude death rate of lung cancer was 91.3 per 100 000 in the whole Xuanwei City, while that for Laibin Town in this city was 241.14 per 100 000. The epidemiologic distribution (clustering patterns by population, time, and space) of lung cancer in Xuanwei has some special features, e.g., high incidence in rural areas, high incidence in females, and an early age peak in lung cancer deaths. The main factor that associates with a high rate of lung cancer incidence was found to be indoor air pollution caused by the indoor burning of smoky coal. To a certain extent, genetic defects are also associated with the high incidence of lung cancer in Xuanwei. Taken together, lung cancer in this smoky coal combustion region is a unique model for environmental factor-related human cancer, and the current studies indicate that abandoning the use of smoky coal is the key to diminish lung cancer morbidity and mortality.

关键词： lung cancer Xuanwei smoky coal combustion polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons epidemiology

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China’s local governments are combating COVID-19 with unprecedented responses – from a Wenzhou governance perspective

Fanghua Gong, Yong Xiong, Jian Xiao, Li Lin, Xiaodong Liu, Dezhong Wang, Xiaokun Li

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第2期页码 220-224 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0755-z

摘要： The COVID-19 caused by a novel strain of coronavirus has been spreading rapidly since its onset in Wuhan, the capital city of central China’s Hubei Province, in December 2019. It is highly communicable through human-to-human transmission. China has been making unprecedented efforts in treating the confirmed cases, identifying and isolating their close contacts and suspected cases to control the source of infection and cut the route of transmission. China’s devotion in handling this epidemic has effectively and efficiently curbed communication domestically and across the border. Representative measures adopted by Wenzhou, the worst hit city out of Hubei Province, are examined to elucidate those massive undertakings with the aim of enhancing international understanding and building global rapport in fighting this evolving epidemic situation.

关键词： COVID-19 novel coronavirus pneumonia 2019-nCoV epidemic management

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Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic

Ali A. Rabaan

《医学前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第2期页码 213-228 doi: 10.1007/s11684-018-0631-2

摘要： Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with , primarily the O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

关键词： cholera epidemic multi-drug resistant catechin luteolin ToxT CTX&Fcy

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Epidemic obesity in children and adolescents: risk factors and prevention

Eun Young Lee, Kun-Ho Yoon

《医学前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第6期页码 658-666 doi: 10.1007/s11684-018-0640-1

摘要： The prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents (aged 2–18 years) has increased rapidly, with more than 100 million affected in 2015. Moreover, the epidemic of obesity in this population has been an important public health problem in developed and developing countries for the following reasons. Childhood and adolescent obesity tracks adulthood obesity and has been implicated in many chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, childhood and adolescent obesity is linked to adulthood mortality and premature death. Although an imbalance between caloric intake and physical activity is a principal cause of childhood and adolescent obesity, environmental factors are exclusively important for development of obesity among children and adolescents. In addition to genetic and biological factors, socioenvironmental factors, including family, school, community, and national policies, can play a crucial role. The complexity of risk factors for developing obesity among children and adolescents leads to difficulty in treatment for this population. Many interventional trials for childhood and adolescent obesity have been proven ineffective. Therefore, early identification and prevention is the key to control the global epidemic of obesity. Given that the proportion of overweight children and adolescents is far greater than that of obesity, an effective prevention strategy is to focus on overweight youth, who are at high risk for developing obesity. Multifaceted, comprehensive strategies involving behavioral, psychological, and environmental risk factors must also be developed to prevent obesity among children and adolescents.

关键词： obesity children adolescents epidemiology risk factor prevention

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为有效防控新冠病毒肺炎争取时间——抗疫假期政策对疫情传播的影响 Article

陈思邈, 陈秋实, 杨维中, 薛澜, 刘远立, 杨俊涛, 王辰, Till Bärnighausen

《工程（英文）》 2020年第6卷第10期页码 1108-1114 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.07.018

摘要：

在新发突发传染病的早期阶段，快速应对对于疫情防控至关重要。用于控制疫情的公共假期能为大规模、迅速地进行社会隔离和其他举措提供关键的时间窗口期。本研究的目的是探讨抗疫假期的起始时间节点和持续时间对中国早期新冠病毒肺炎疫情传播的影响。我们开发了一个房室模型来模拟从2020年1月开始中国新冠病毒肺炎疫情的动态传播；预测并比较了春节期间在有抗疫假期和没有抗疫假期下的疫情传播；考虑了抗疫假期在不同持续时间、不同起始时间节点，以及在关于病毒传播率的不同假设下的多种情况；估计了在不同情况下达到某些感染阈值所需的天数延迟。结果表明，中国的抗疫假期使新冠病毒肺炎疫情的传播停滞了许多天。与不设抗疫假期的场景相比，基础场景的抗疫假期（湖北省为21 d，中国所有其他省为10 d）可使确诊感染100 000例的时间延迟7.54 d。持续时间更长的抗疫假期会对疫情防控产生更大的影响。为期21 d的全国性抗疫假期可使确诊感染100 000例的时间延迟近10 d。此外，研究发现，在新发突发传染病较早阶段实施抗疫假期比较晚阶段实施对遏制疫情蔓延更有效，抗疫假期期间采取额外的控制措施可以增强疫情控制效果。总之，抗疫假期能够通过有效地减少人群的社交接触频率及范围，从而减缓疫情的传播。抗疫假期使得新冠病毒肺炎传播暂时停滞，为疫情防控争取了时间，科学家可用争取的时间来发现传播途径并确定有效的公共卫生干预措施，政府可用争取的时间来完善基础设施、调配医疗用品、培训和部署专业人力资源，从而为长期防控做好准备。

关键词：新冠病毒肺炎模型春节假期延长保持社交距离

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Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different

Chen Xu, Yinqiao Dong, Xiaoyue Yu, Huwen Wang, Lhakpa Tsamlag, Shuxian Zhang, Ruijie Chang, Zezhou Wang, Yuelin Yu, Rusi Long, Ying Wang, Gang Xu, Tian Shen, Suping Wang, Xinxin Zhang, Hui Wang, Yong Cai

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第5期页码 613-622 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0787-4

摘要： The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a life-threatening pandemic. The epidemic trends in different countries vary considerably due to different policy-making and resources mobilization. We calculated basic reproduction number (R ) and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number (R ) of COVID-19 by using the maximum likelihood method and the sequential Bayesian method, respectively. European and North American countries possessed higher R and unsteady R fluctuations, whereas some heavily affected Asian countries showed relatively low R and declining R now. The numbers of patients in Africa and Latin America are still low, but the potential risk of huge outbreaks cannot be ignored. Three scenarios were then simulated, generating distinct outcomes by using SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed) model. First, evidence-based prompt responses yield lower transmission rate followed by decreasing R . Second, implementation of effective control policies at a relatively late stage, in spite of huge casualties at early phase, can still achieve containment and mitigation. Third, wisely taking advantage of the time-window for developing countries in Africa and Latin America to adopt adequate measures can save more people’s life. Our mathematical modeling provides evidence for international communities to develop sound design of containment and mitigation policies for COVID-19.

关键词： reproduction number SEIR model COVID-19 estimate

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2019 novel coronavirus outbreak: a quiz or final exam?

Jiuyang Xu, Yijun Chen, Hao Chen, Bin Cao

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第2期页码 225-228 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0753-1

摘要： The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is an emerging pathogen and is threatening the global health. Strikingly, more than 28 000 cases and 550 deaths have been reported within two months from disease emergence. Armed with experience from previous epidemics in the last two decades, clinicians, scientists, officials, and citizens in China are all contributing to the prevention of further 2019-nCoV transmission. Efficient preliminary work has enabled us to understand the basic characteristics of 2019-nCoV, but there are still many unanswered questions. It is too early now to judge our performance in this outbreak. Continuous and strengthened efforts should be made not only during the epidemic, but also afterwards in order to prepare for any incoming challenges.

关键词： 2019-nCoV novel coronavirus epidemic public response

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Phase- and epidemic region-adjusted estimation of the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China

Ruijie Chang, Huwen Wang, Shuxian Zhang, Zezhou Wang, Yinqiao Dong, Lhakpa Tsamlag, Xiaoyue Yu, Chen Xu, Yuelin Yu, Rusi Long, Ning-Ning Liu, Qiao Chu, Ying Wang, Gang Xu, Tian Shen, Suping Wang, Xiaobei Deng, Jinyan Huang, Xinxin Zhang, Hui Wang, Yong Cai

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第2期页码 199-209 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0768-7

摘要： The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed. A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. The estimated number of infections could reach its peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55 303–84 520 and 83 944–129 312, respectively, while the epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China could appear on February 13, 2020 with the estimated 13 035–19 108 cases. According to the estimation, the outbreak would abate in March and April all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, there is still possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high intensity cities outside Hubei Province. Strict prevention and control measures still need to be considered in the regions with high intensity of epidemic and densely-populated cities.

关键词： SEIR model COVID-19 estimate China

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SARS传染病数学建模及预测预防控制机理研究

刘云忠,宣慧玉,林国玺

《中国工程科学》 2004年第6卷第9期页码 60-65

摘要：

首先，利用疾病传播的一般规律及人口守恒统计法则建立了四类人的SARS传染病数学模型，然后运用数学方法对四类人的SARS传染病数学模型进行分析，得出了其生理意义和预防、控制机理。其次，利用人工神经网络理论建立了SARS的预测模型，以北京市的SARS数据为例进行了预测和分析，预测结果显示该模型简单易行，预测精度高。

关键词： SARS 稳定性轨线阈值定理人工神经网络

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The Routine and Emergency Coordinated Management of Public Security

Ning Liu

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2015年第2卷第4期页码 331-338 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2015063

摘要： The paper presents a study based on the observation of public security programme situations. Nowadays, public security management is faced with challenges such as the increase in non-traditional safety threats, high occurrence probability, obvious complex chain reactions, high security demand, vulnerable bearing systems and world-wide influences. For the new adapted requirements of public security management, this paper puts forward the concept of the coordinated routine and emergency management, which combines the routine management at normal status and the emergency management at the abnormal status based on the whole process of public security management. This paper analyzes the coordinated management system and establishes the decision-making objectives, decision-making model and constraints. In addition, this paper proposes the basic strategy of achieving the coordinated management of public security.

关键词： public security routine management emergency management coordinated management

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Linking key intervention timings to rapid declining effective reproduction number to quantify lessons against COVID-19

Zhihang Peng, Wenyu Song, Zhongxing Ding, Quanquan Guan, Xu Yang, Qiaoqiao Xu, Xu Wang, Yankai Xia

《医学前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第5期页码 623-629 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0788-3

摘要： Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently under a global pandemic trend. The efficiency of containment measures and epidemic tendency of typical countries should be assessed. In this study, the efficiency of prevention and control measures in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan was assessed, and the COVID-19 epidemic tendency among these countries was compared. Results showed that the effective reproduction number( ) in Wuhan, China increased almost exponentially, reaching a maximum of 3.98 before a lockdown and rapidly decreased to below 1 due to containment and mitigation strategies of the Chinese government. The in Italy declined at a slower pace than that in China after the implementation of prevention and control measures. The in Iran showed a certain decline after the establishment of a national epidemic control command, and an evident stationary phase occurred because the best window period for the prevention and control of the epidemic was missed. The epidemic in Japan and South Korea reoccurred several times with the fluctuating greatly. The epidemic has hardly rebounded in China due to the implementation of prevention and control strategies and the effective enforcement of policies. Other countries suffering from the epidemic could learn from the Chinese experience in containing COVID-19.

关键词： COVID-19 epidemic control comparison Chinese experience